Property Tycoons or Property Typhoon?

The recently sold flat in the peak for more than 60,000HKD/square foot is testament to the explosion in Hong Kong real estate prices, commercial or residential.

What is more unbelievable is that this is admist the second lowest GDP growth of 2.6% in Hong Kong over the past fiscal year, second to last in a list of thirteen South East Asian countries.

This begs the question: if this rise in property prices is not fueled by domestic increases in wealth, then who in fact are buying these lots?

The obvious answer is the already rich and landed elite, and in particular, those who come from Mainland China.

This has various implications. As property prices continue to increase, consumer prices will re-adjust in order to allow rent to be paid, while wages will be kept down to cut costs within businesses. This will mean a decrease in general disposable income not sponsored by profits made by Hong Kong locals in the property market. Increase in consumer prices amidst decrease in spendable income means a crunch in consumer demand, leading to money reserved only for necessities. Along the same times, this will decrease the saving ratio in Hong Kong relative to other regions.

In the shorter term, speculation, or, in more popular vernacular, "frying buildings," could possibly lead to a bubble burst which will bring a shock to the entire Hong Kong economy. As property owners, who purchase property for the sake of profit-making expect the property market to overheat, a wave of selling may occur which will lead to a depression in the property market and send a wave of pessimism throughout the rest of the economy. This also has implications in the equity market. All of this will depend on whether Mainlanders are speculating or will keep their holdings - I speculate the former.

Seen from a grander scale, this property scare is nothing new. As part of global capitalism, global elites from all over the world now own property far away from their homes. High-end residential property in each major city is invested and purchased by wealth from the other side of the globe. In one spectacular case mentioned by Newsweek three weeks ago, the property in Victoria Island, Nigeria is now more expensive than property in Manhattan, likely the result of investment from America and Europe. Who would have known?

Thus, increasingly, economic fluctuations are not contained within state boundaries. The power of foreign wealth over an economy is overwhelming as well as obscure. The fact that much of Hong Kong's economy now depends on Mainland China's is less of a political necessity than an economic one. With much of the landed elite in Mainland China interested in business and property in Hong Kong, there is little question that the latter's economy will be tied to the former's destiny in uncontrollable ways.

As these changes take place, it will be interesting to see how the political debate about economics in Hong Kong will shift or diminish, as its government realize the futility of its policies.